New projections for U.S. life expectancy forecast a slight increase by 2050, though the nation is expected to fall behind many other nations in global health rankings, according to research published Dec. 5 in The Lancet.
Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle analyzed trends for 359 diseases and injuries to forecast state and national life expectancy through 2050.
Four takeaways:
1. Researchers project life expectancy will rise from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050, representing a "modest" increase compared to other countries. As a result, the nation's life expectancy ranking is expected to fall from 49th to 66th.
2. The nation's ranking for healthy life expectancy — the number of years a person can expect to live in good health — is also projected to drop from 80th in 2022 to 108th in 2050.
3. The uptick in life expectancy is attributable to declining mortality rates for ischemic heart disease, stroke, cancer and diabetes. However, worsening health outcomes from obesity, high blood sugar and drug use disorders pose ongoing threats. Notably, drug-related mortality is projected to climb 34% by 2050, the highest projected rate of any country.
4. Researchers suggest there are opportunities to change the trajectory of American health outcomes by improving healthcare access, ramping up preventive care and investing in scientific innovation, among other key actions.
"Our findings highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some U.S. states and a decline in global health standing for all states," researchers said. "Our forecasts clearly show that the time to act is now, as the future of the country's health and wellbeing — as well as its prosperity and leadership position in science and innovation — are at stake.