Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected by mid-April in the U.S., according to an analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle.
The study presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.
While peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, will occur at the national level in two weeks, this varies by state. About a third of states, including New York, are projected to hit peak capacity in the first half of April, but some states will see the most demand for hospital resources in May.
Below is the projected date of peak hospital resource demand in each state according to the model, which uses data last updated April 1.
April 8
New Jersey
April 9
Louisiana
Michigan
New York
Vermont
April 11
Delaware
Washington
April 15
Alaska
Connecticut
District of Columbia
April 16
Massachusetts
April 17
Alabama
Colorado
Maine
New Hampshire
April 18
Pennsylvania
April 19
Indiana
Ohio
Tennessee
April 20
Illinois
Nevada
Rhode Island
April 21
Mississippi
North Dakota
April 22
Minnesota
April 23
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
April 24
Georgia
New Mexico
April 26
Arkansas
California
Idaho
Montana
North Carolina
April 27
Arizona
Wisconsin
April 28
Kansas
South Carolina
April 29
Maryland
May 1
Iowa
May 3
Florida
Hawaii
May 4
South Dakota
West Virginia
Wyoming
May 5
Oregon
May 6
Texas
May 16
Kentucky
May 20
Virginia
May 21
Missouri